Notes
I was wrong about Prediction Markets
Donald Trump just got elected, and while polls showed a very close race, prediction markets such as Polymarket were confident he would win. But why? I couldn't understand how they could be so certain when regular polling showed such unclear results.
I watched an interview with a French trader who invested millions of dollars betting on Trump's victory. This helped me understand what was really happening. Instead of writing about his research like a journalist would, this trader did careful analysis and put his money behind his findings. He spotted the difference between public perception and reality – and made a lot of money for his work.
This case reveals some worrying issues. How could pollsters produce such incorrect polls? And why were these polls published without proper verification? There's clearly a problem with how information is gathered, analyzed, and shared. Prediction markets create a financial reward for people who do thorough fact-checking. Whether this is good or bad is a larger discussion for another time.
Going forward, I'll definitely use prediction markets as one of my tools to get beyond the limited perspectives that social media algorithms and news outlets might be showing me. They can help us think more critically about what's really happening.
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Meet the French trader who bet $40 million on Trump winning the election.pic.twitter.com/XXBzEA595e
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 5, 2024
Jenny Holzer's Truisms
Discovered at Arles' Rencontres de la Photography, Jenny Holzer's Truisms are life-lessons collected as impactful short sentences.
Some of my favorites:
Abuse of power comes as no surprise
A lot of professionals are crackpots
A strong sense of duty imprisons you
Action causes more trouble than thoughts
All things are delicately interconnected
Always store food
Obsession Records in Lausanne
While spending a day in Lausanne, I was heading to the Collection de l'Art Brut museum when I stumbled upon the Obsession Records Shop. Nestled in the basement of a bookshop (Librairie Basta!), this wasn't your typical underground space. The shop exuded an incredible ambiance, with sunlight streaming through a glass ceiling, illuminating the wooden floor below. Welcoming chairs, a thriving interior plant, and the gentle hum of music created an inviting atmosphere, complemented by the friendly owner's presence.
Although my French wallet felt the pinch of Swiss prices, I couldn't resist. After all, records bought while traveling carry their own stories, making them all the more precious.
Obsession Records / Rue du Petit Rocher 4 / 1003 Lausanne / Suisse
Noah Lyles on disorders and identity
I have Asthma, allergies, dyslexia, ADD, anxiety, and Depression.
But I will tell you that what you have does not define what you can become.
Why Not You!
- Noah Lyles, Olympic Champion.
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I have Asthma, allergies, dyslexia, ADD, anxiety, and Depression.
— Noah Lyles, OLY (@LylesNoah) August 4, 2024
But I will tell you that what you have does not define what you can become.
Why Not You!
Trevor Noah Brilliantly Describes His ADHD
Russel Barkley (a retired ADHD specialist) comments a video of Trevor Noah talking about ADHD and depression. It's always inspiring to witness celebrities sharing their mental health struggles. I learned that Simone Biles and Noah Lyles are diagnosed with ADHD.
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I have Asthma, allergies, dyslexia, ADD, anxiety, and Depression.
— Noah Lyles, OLY (@LylesNoah) August 4, 2024
But I will tell you that what you have does not define what you can become.
Why Not You!